PRESENTERS AND TOPICS
Ronald J. Ryan, CFA. CEO, Founder, Ryan ALM, Inc.
Topic: "Pension Scoreboard" (Download)
Ron is a well known index innovator and bond research gadfly. In 1974, he created the first Municipal Total Return Index. As the Director of Research at Lehman Brothers, he designed many of their popular bond indexes. In 1982, he started his initial firm The Ryan Financial Strategy Group where he created the 1st Daily Bond Index. Afterwards, he founded Ryan Labs, Inc. in 1988 and Ryan ALM, Inc. in 2004. In his 32 years as a bond index creator, Ron has designed over 100 generic bond indexes and over 1,000 custom indexes including the 1st Liability Index. In 2002, Ron won the MML Lifetime Achievement Award for money managers, in 2006 he won the William F. Sharpe Index Lifetime Achievement Award and in 2007 won the Most Innovative Bond Index Award by Capital Link. Ron has been a pension watchdog since 1991 and has numerous research papers on the Pension Crisis.
Keith H. Black, CFA, CAIA. Associate, Ennis Knupp + Associates.
Topic: "Alternative Investments: Exposures at Endowments and Foundations" (Download)
At Ennis Knupp + Associates, Keith leads consulting relationships for a select number of retainer and project clients. Keith is also a senior member of the firm's opportunistic strategies investment management research group. Prior to joining Ennis Knupp in 2007, Keith taught at the Illinois Institute of Technology as an Assistant Professor and Senior Lecturer for the past eight years on several subjects. He has also authored a book entitled, Managing a Hedge Fund: A Complete Guide to Trading, Business Strategies, Risk Management and Regulations, that was published by McGraw Hill in 2004, and has written several published research articles on issues facing hedge funds.
A summary of the book is available at the EDHEC Risk website.
The book is available to PRMIA members at a 10 percent discount ("Download file").
The conference will focus on analysis, mitigation and transference of credit risk. To view the complete brochure click here. Featured speakers include:
The speakers and their topics were:
HILARY TILL. Principal, Premia Capital Management, LLC. Ms. Till is a Research Associate at the EDHEC Risk and Asset Management Research Centre and co-editor of the 2007 Risk Book, Intelligent Commodity Investing.
Topic: "Opportunities and Risks in Commodity Markets"Download file
PAUL KAPLAN, Ph.D., CFA. VP, Quantitative Research, Morningstar. Dr. Kaplan is responsible for the quantitative methodologies behind Morningstar’s fund analysis, indexes, advisor tools, and other services.
Topic: "In Search of a Commodity Beta" Download file
Download presentation.
]]>We are hoping to post all of the presentations.
Here is Dr. Rietz's presentation on prediction markets and risk management.
]]>Panel Discusses "New Developments in Exchange-listed Derivatives -- Volatility, Credit, Portfolio Margining, and ETNs"
Chicago, IL June 18, 2007 -- The theme "New Developments in Exchange-listed Derivatives: Volatility, Credit, Portfolio Margining, and ETNs," was presented at a 90-minute four-person panel discussion at the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) on June 14th. This was the 42nd meeting of Chicago QWAFAFEW (Quantitative Work Alliance for Applied Finance, Education & Wisdom) www.qwafafew.org, and the meeting was jointly sponsored by Chicago PRMIA (Professional Risk Managers' International Association) www.prmia.org.
Mr. William Brodsky, Chairman and CEO of the CBOE, welcomed the four panelists and 95 people in attendance, and noted that the topics to be discussed were of interest to many investors.
Here are some highlights of the topics covered by the four panelists:
(1) CREDIT DERIVATIVES. Dr. Izzy Nelken, President of Super Computer Consulting in Northbrook, Illinois, noted that:
a) The current notional value for O-T-C credit derivatives is estimated to be about $27 trillion,
b) "Credit default swaps (CDS)" are misnamed because they are more like a digital or binary option rather than a swap - the buyer pays a small amount and the seller potentially might be obligated to pay a huge amount,
c) Some difficulties with the existing O-T-C credit default swaps (CDS) market include the fact that prices are opaque (only selected prices can be observed via specialized services, (e.g. a partial list might include: Markit, Reuters, Bloomberg, Advantage Data); the CDS market is highly concentrated; CDS are based on the recovery rates (and when Delphi defaulted, there was a period when bond prices went up as protection buyers had to buy the bond to deliver); there is a complex ISDA settlement arrangement, purchasers of credit protection are worried about the correlation between the seller and the reference credit; and dealers are most concerned about the Japan-on-Japan risk, especially when both belong to the same keiretsu,
d) A proposed exchange-traded Credit Event Binary Option (CEBO) is a binary option that provides protection against defaults on debt securities guaranteed by corporations, with a binary payoff of either $100,000 (when a credit event occurs) or $0, and
e) Potential advantages of the exchange-traded CEBO include:
(i) Prices will become more transparent and viewable by all investors,
(ii) The market will become more widely distributed,
(iii) Not dependent upon recovery rates;
(iv) Settlement will be automatic, determined by the CBOE
(v) Default correlation: not a factor in single name
(vi) CEBO is guaranteed by the Options Clearing Corporation (with a triple-A credit rating).
(2) PORTFOLIO MARGINING. Mr. Douglas J. Engmann, Senior EVP and Managing Director of Equities, FIMAT USA, in San Francisco gave an overview of the new portfolio margining rules. To create more competitive listed securities markets, in July 2005 the U.S. the SEC approved a "portfolio margining" pilot program to effectively lower margin requirements, beginning with broad-based index options and ETFs. By July 2006, the SEC expanded the pilot to include individual equity options (excluding the underlying) and single stock futures. Fimat was the only U.S. broker that operated under the two pilot programs. A full portfolio margining program was approved effective in April 2007, with an expansion of products to include stocks, OTC derivatives, ETFs, options on narrow-based indices, and single stock futures (but no CFTC-regulated index futures). Mr. Engmann provided a couple of examples of strategies (married put and long straddle) with offsetting limited-risk positions in which there could be a substantial decrease in exchange required margins when one compares Reg T margins to the new portfolio (or risk-based) margins, and he noted that CBOE now has a new paper featuring a table with margin comparisons for dozens of strategies. Eligibility Guidelines for portfolio margining include the fact that the investor must qualify under the broker's rules on options trading experience and knowledge to trade uncovered calls & puts, and must meet the minimum equity requirements set by the broker (Fimat USA has established $500,000 minimum for a fund; $150,000 for an individual), and must sign a portfolio margin risk disclosure.
(3) EXCHANGE-TRADED NOTES. Mr. Philippe El-Asmar, Managing Director at Barclays Capital in New York, discussed the recent growth of exchange-traded notes (ETNs), and noted that there now are ETNs on commodity indexes, currencies, emerging markets, and the CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index. The eight iPath Exchange Traded Notes (ETNs) are senior, unsecured, unsubordinated debt securities issued by Barclays Bank. They are designed to provide investors with a new way to access the returns of market benchmarks or strategies. ETNs are not equities or index funds, but they do share several characteristics. For example, like equities, they trade on an exchange and can be shorted. Like an index fund, they are linked to the return of a benchmark index. iPath ETNs provide investors with convenient access to the returns of market benchmarks, minus investor fees, with easy transferability and an exchange listing. The ETN structure allows investors to achieve cost-effective, tax-efficient investment in previously expensive or difficult-to-reach market sectors or strategies. iPath ETNs are designed to provide investors a return that is linked to the performance of a market index, minus investor fees. The iPath ETNs currently available are listed on major exchanges and are available for purchase, similar to other publicly traded securities. Investors can liquidate iPath ETNs one of three ways:
a) Sell in the secondary market during trading hours.
b) Redeem a large block of securities, typically 50,000 securities, on a weekly basis directly to the issuer, Barclays Bank PLC, subject to the procedures described in the relevant prospectus. A redemption charge may apply.
c) Hold until maturity and receive a cash payment from the issuer, Barclays Bank PLC, equal to the principal amount of the units times the index factor on the final valuation date, less the investor fee on the final valuation date.
(4) VOLATILITY AND THE VIX. Mr. Ben Londergan, Co-CEO of Group One Trading in Chicago, discussed use of volatility products and the fact that his firm is the designated primary market maker for options on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a product that was launched in 2006 and has been one of the most successful new index options products of the decade. In May 2007, VIX options had an average daily volume of 71,354 contracts, and open interest was 912,729 VIX call options and 472,926 put options. Mr. Londergan noted that there are several reasons why investors trade volatility, including:
a) Negative correlation to most equity indexes,
b) Positive correlation to credit prices,
c) Efficient way to manage unwanted market risk,
d) Unique properties of volatility create trading opportunities --
i) Historical difference between realized and implied volatility,
ii) Volatility Term Structure,
iii) High Volatility of Volatility (the historic volatilities in 2006 were 94% for the VIX spot index, 36% for VIX near-term futures, and 10% for the S&P 500 (SPX)). Key points about the volatility markets include:
a) $80 - $100 million in vega is traded globally each day.
b) SPX-based volatility market is the largest; also good size for volatility based on the EuroStoxx 50 and Nikkei 225 indexes.
c) Vanilla variance swaps are most common, but there is growing interest in variance options, conditional variance, corridor variance, correlation & dispersion and VIX, and growing demand for long-dated options (>10 yrs.)
d) Expiry ranges from 1 month to 10 years. Most activity is 3 months to 1 year.
e) Hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies are hedging equity volatility risk. End-user groups are slowly broadening, still learning & need to identify risks and benefits. Volatility buyers might become sellers if risk/return is right.
f) Lower Volatility. The implied and realized volatilities of US stock market indexes have dropped in the past five years (the average daily closing price of VIX was 27.3 in 2002 and 12.8 in 2005 - 2007).
g) Negative Correlation. VIX prices generally have had a negative correlation to S&P 500 prices, and the VIX can explode on the upside if S&P prices suffer a big drop. For example, on Feb. 27, 2007, the S&P 500 dropped 3.5%, the VIX spot index rose 64%, and the VIX (near-term) March '07 futures rose 29.5%. In response to questions from the audience, Mr. Londergan also discussed the bid-ask spread and liquidity for the VIX options.
For additional information, please contact Timur Gök, Regional Director, PRMIA Chicago, at tgok@niu.edu or 815/753-6395; or Katherine Farren, Premia Capital at farren@premiacap.com or 312/583-1143.
]]>Their presentations are available online.
Friedman presentation.
Meder presentation.
]]>The presenters at the luncheon and the topics that they discussed were as follows:
- Hilary Till, Co-Founder - Premia Capital Management, LLC; and Research Associate, EDHEC Risk and Asset Management Research Centre. Topic: "Structural Sources of Return & Risk in Commodity Futures Investments"
- Rian Akey, Vice President and COO - Cole Partners. Topic: "Can your Commodities Investment be BOTH a High Risk-Adjusted Return Source and a Portfolio Hedge?"
- Thomas Idzorek, CFA, Vice President, Research and Product Development - Ibbotson Associates. Topic: "Strategic Asset Allocation and Commodities"
John R. Boatright, the Raymond C. Baumhart, S.J., Professor of Business Ethics in the Graduate School of Business at Loyola University Chicago discussed the responsibility of intermediaries, such as accountants, lawyers, and bankers, to act as gatekeepers in preventing misconduct.
Timur Gok, Northern Illinois University and Regional Director of PRMIA Chicago, drew some lessons from research that has explored and quantified the link between corporate governance and corporate value creation and destruction.
]]>For more information please visit the PRMIA website.
QWAFAFEW meeting. QWAFAFEW will meet on Tuesday, January 30, 2007, from 5:00 to 7:00 P.M. at Mesirow Financial, 350 North Clark Street, Chicago.
The meeting's theme is "Innovative Factors in Equity Modeling." The speakers for the meeting are Mr. Carson Boneck and Mr. Jason Hans, who are senior quantitative analysts at Quantitative Services Group (QSG) and Mr. Rawley Thomas, president of LifeCycle Returns, Inc. The moderator of the meeting is Mr. Keith Black from the Stuart Graduate School of Business at the Illinois Institute of Technology.
Admission to the meeting is $10 with refreshments provided. RSVP directly to QWAFAFEW at Chicago@qwafafew.org by Thursday, January 25.
Forthcoming publication. Ms. Hilary Till, who is on the steering committees of PRMIA and QWAFAFEW in Chicago, has co-edited a book with Mr. Joseph Eagleeye. The book, Intelligent Commodity Investing: New Strategies and Practical Insights for Informed Decision Making, is coming in Spring 2007. More information is available online.
Hilary, who is a co-founder of Premia Capital Management, LLC, is also a principal of Premia Risk Consultancy, Inc., which advises investment firms on derivatives strategies and risk management policy. Her presentation, "Early Lessons from the Amaranth Debacle," and her report, "EDHEC Comments on the Amaranth Case: Early Lessons from the Debacle," are available online. Her report recently was cited in the European Central Bank's Financial Stability Review, December 2006.
]]>Economic derivatives are over-the-counter products traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). These products allow investors to hedge risks or create exposures associated with key macroeconomic releases such as U.S. nonfarm payrolls, the Institute of Supply Management's PMI, U.S. weekly initial jobless claims, European inflation, and others. Derivative products offered include digital and vanilla options as well as forwards on the outcome of these economic releases.
CME Economic Derivatives trade on the CME Auction Markets platform through a Dutch auction process. The CME Clearing House implements a clearing process for CME Economic Derivatives.
Horse Races and Hedging
The derivatives auction is based on the parimutuel system developed by Longitude (Parimutuel Derivative Call Auction(TM) or PDCA(TM)). In a parimutuel system (which also is used in wagering markets, such as racetrack betting) all bets are pooled and payoffs and payoff probabilities are determined by the size and composition of the pool. An important feature of the parimutuel system is that it allows for price discovery and market-clearing without matching buyers and sellers.
Background Information
Baron, K. and J. Lange, 'From Horses to Hedging,' Risk Magazine, 26, No. 2, 2003, pp. 73-77.
CME Auction Markets
Economic Derivatives
Parimutuel betting and Dutch Auction (at Wikipedia)
To register for this event, please visit the announcement for the event before 5:00 P.M. Monday, October 23.
On behalf of the Chicago risk management community, PRMIA would like to thank the CME for their sponsorship for this event and Goldman Sachs for their participation.
We look forward to seeing you on October 26.
Timur Gok
PRMIA
Regional Co-Director, Chicago