Exchange Ideas

Identify Risks

'Identify Risks' will focus on risk identification at both the micro and the macro levels. Occasionally, it will offer solutions for managing the same. Note: The views expressed here are personal.

Lending for the purpose of capital injection...

Is it wrong for a Bank or a Financial Institution to lend to certain entities (X) which then invest those money in that Bank/FI equity? And what if the entity X is the government?

Continue reading "Lending for the purpose of capital injection..."

Posted by Aniruddha Godbole at 03:08 PM | Comments (0)

India's insurance against trade wars

The notion of mutually assured destruction (MAD) helps prevent a direct full-blown military confrontation amongst nuclear weapons states. This has been an important pillar of the global security architecture in the post-second world war era.

Continue reading "India's insurance against trade wars"

Posted by Aniruddha Godbole at 04:16 PM | Comments (0)

Tail risk and Compensation in the Financial Sector

Post the North Atlantic Financial Crisis of 2007-08 there has been an increased emphasis on deferred compensation and stock compensation. Is this meaningful?

Continue reading "Tail risk and Compensation in the Financial Sector"

Posted by Aniruddha Godbole at 07:12 PM | Comments (0)

Economics Professors' favourite Economics blogs...

Thanks to the recent paper "Economics Professors’ Favorite
Economic Thinkers, Journals, and Blogs (along with Party and Policy
Views" by William L. Davis, Bob Figgins, David Hedengren,
and Daniel B. Klein
we have some interesting lists. The favourite blogs are:

Continue reading "Economics Professors' favourite Economics blogs..."

Posted by Aniruddha Godbole at 05:43 PM | Comments (0)

India's inverted Tobin tax?

Last month the Government of India notified a service tax for corporate forex transactions.

Continue reading "India's inverted Tobin tax?"

Posted by Aniruddha Godbole at 03:57 PM | Comments (0)

Monetary Policy Operating Procedures in India

Reserve Bank of India's working group on Operating procedure of Monetary Policy report was released by the RBI on its website on 16-Mar-2011. My comments on the report are:

Continue reading "Monetary Policy Operating Procedures in India"

Posted by Aniruddha Godbole at 08:28 AM | Comments (0)

A review of the recent books by Y.V. Reddy and Raghuram Rajan

Former Reserve Bank of India Governor Y.V. Reddy's book "Global Crisis, Recession and Uneven Recovery (Jan 2011)" and University of Chicago's Professor Raghuram G. Rajan's book "Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy" (May 2010) were released in the last twelve months. Here is my humble opinion of both of these must-read books.

Continue reading "A review of the recent books by Y.V. Reddy and Raghuram Rajan"

Posted by Aniruddha Godbole at 07:25 PM | Comments (0)

Political pressure and (un)easy credit...

A sub-committee of the Reserve Bank of India's Board submitted a report to Study Issues and Concerns in the MFI sector. It is available here. This report was submitted in January 2011.

Continue reading "Political pressure and (un)easy credit..."

Posted by Aniruddha Godbole at 07:11 PM | Comments (0)

Government of India's Inflation Indexed Bonds...

The Reserve Bank of India released its second discussion paper on inflation indexed bonds last month (The first one was released in May 2004). In the past I have argued in favour of inflation indexed bonds in my opinion piece "Winning the battle against inflation" (Mint, 24-May-2010). However, the instrument design in recent discussion paper has some major design flaws.

Continue reading "Government of India's Inflation Indexed Bonds..."

Posted by Aniruddha Godbole at 01:59 PM | Comments (0)

Monetary Policy Operating Procedures in India.

In India, the paradox of monetary policy is that when the central bank changes its policy interest rates, it generally does not result in a corresponding change in bank lending interest rates. Last month, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) set up a panel to review its existing monetary policy operating procedures.

India’s central bank currently operates a liquidity adjustment facility (LAF). Under it, the overnight repo rate is the one at which banks borrow from the central bank for one day, while the overnight reverse repo rate is the rate at which banks lend to the central bank for one day. This system is, in some ways, well suited for managing daily mismatches between a bank’s cash inflows and cash outflows: It can help banks tide over daily liquidity deficit or surplus situations. But that’s not how the financial system works in developed countries.

Major central banks such as the European Central Bank, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and even most members of the South East Asian Central Banks are similar in their attempt to achieve a structural liquidity deficit at most times—unlike in India, where banks actually hold surplus cash often. As a result, the banking system in the euro zone or the US is generally required to borrow from the central bank. As the central bank becomes the monopolist supplier of liquidity, this state of structural liquidity deficit ensures that the policy interest rate becomes the marginal cost of funds.

RBI needs its policy rate to matter for banks’ funding. If India is to make its policy transmission as effective as, say, the euro zone’s, it may follow a six-point approach:


Continue reading "Monetary Policy Operating Procedures in India."

Posted by Aniruddha Godbole at 08:10 AM | Comments (2)

Price adjusted broad dollar index...end of dollar weakness?

The price adjusted broad dollar index published by the US Federal Reserve shows that the dollar has had overvaluation/undervalation within around 15% since January 1986 (also from January 1973 but for the May-1984 to Dec-1986 period)---for graph and data pl click on Download file. The monthly number for September 2010 shows an undervaluation of 13%.
So is the dollar's undervalution story hitting a barrier? Or is Quantitative Easing-II going to take the dollar outside the 15% band (similar to May-1984 to Dec-1986 period's price-adjusted broad dollar index values)?

Posted by Aniruddha Godbole at 06:57 PM | Comments (0)

Financial Innovation

What is financial innovation & is financial innovation desirable?
Today, I spoke on "Financial Innovation" at a PRMIA Bangalore chapter event organized at New Horizon Leadership Institute, Bengaluru.
A copy of my presentation is available here (A part of this presentation is from an Indian perspective): Download file

Like so many topics, my thinking on this is evolving. I look forward to reader comments.

Posted by Aniruddha Godbole at 11:40 AM | Comments (2)

The good financial innovations...

The North Atlantic Financial Crisis has made most people suspicious of financial innovations. In this post I list eleven good financial innovations.

Continue reading "The good financial innovations..."

Posted by Aniruddha Godbole at 12:15 PM | Comments (5)

Reforming the money systems

Worldwide the extant money systems are bank debt fiat systems ---the money is generated by debits and credits made by commercial banks (currency notes are a relatively small portion of our money). Unrestricted creation of this fiat money can lead to uncontrollable inflation. Hence, a monetary authority is required to police the money creation by commercial banks. While this money is not linked to the not-so-useful gold, like bullion money the bank debt fiat money too is scarce. The function of the bank debt money as a “store of value” combined with the positive interest rates, encourages hoarding of this money. This scarcity adversely affects the “medium of exchange” function of money—say ten entities may not be able to exchange goods and services amongst themselves if they lack money.
Considering that India’s population may peak soon, a few decades later the dependency ratio (the ratio of number of individual aged between 15 years and 64 years, to the number of individuals aged below 15 years or above 64 years) may spike. When Bismarck instituted a retirement age of 65 years in 19th century Germany, the average life expectancy in Germany was 48 years. We have to do away with a fixed retirement age, or may be push it to say 100 years as promises of a leisurely retirement are unlikely to be kept if retirement occours too early. Also, some of our money needs to be anchored with a future need of ours. This alone can make retirement planning meaningful—what use is the conventional money if inflation renders it insufficient to buy anything a few decades later. At an interest rate of 3% p.a., 10gm of gold invested in 1 AD would now equal the weight of the earth! So, we need to accept that high interest rates are not sustainable without accompanying general inflation, unless the money is anchored in a future need that is fulfilled by increased capacity generation. The solution could be to incentivize capacity generation by offering positive interest rates, and to encourage the role of money as a medium of exchange by charging negative interest rates once the capacity is generated. The negative interest rate would also correspond to depletion in the residual life of the capacity generated. The demurrage charge on currencies (negative interest rate) implemented by Gesell was formally endorsed even by Keynes.

Continue reading "Reforming the money systems"

Posted by Aniruddha Godbole at 12:24 PM | Comments (1)

Mutual Funds in India: Lending to top-rated corporates below call money rates

In recent times, the money market in India has been flush with liquidity.
Around Rs 1 lac crores (US$ 21bn) was today's (30-Nov-09) turnover in the three segments of the money market. The weighted average interest rate was 3.25% p.a. in the overnight call money market. The call money market is uncollateralized. Besides, Rs 88K cr (US$ 19 bn) was parked with the Reserve Bank of India by banks at 3.25% p.a. under the central bank's reverse repo facility (only government securities are acceptable for this facility) for one day---interestingly the weighted average call money rate that is uncollateralized is similar to the reverse repo rate of 3.25% available for parking excess liquidity with the central bank. The total outstanding bank credit in India is Rs 28.91 lac cr (US$ 624 bn) while the outstanding aggregate deposits is Rs 41.67 lac cr (US$ 900 bn).
Interestingly, Mutual Funds (under their short-term debt schemes) are lending to top-rated corporates on an uncollateralized basis at Mibor plus either a negligible or even negative spreads. Mibor is the Mumbai Interbank Offer Rate--a polled rate for the inter-bank call money market--and today the Mibor was 3.30% (this benchmark is similar to London's Libor).

Continue reading "Mutual Funds in India: Lending to top-rated corporates below call money rates"

Posted by Aniruddha Godbole at 04:33 PM | Comments (2)

Aniruddha Godbole


Categories

Archives

Recent Entries



Syndicate this site (XML)