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Systems Risk

"Systems Risk" is in the position that Operational Risk was a decade ago (pre Basel II) in that everyone knows that Information Technology is a major issue in Financial Services but the industry has not found satisfactory ways of analysing and measuring the associated risks. Many business surveys point to IT being of vital interest to Boards and senior management, but we (the IT profession) keep screwing up - I would argue because, in part, neither the IT function nor business has yet learned how to manage risk.

 

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November 19, 2008

Through the Looking Glass

Alice in Wonderland: If you drink much from a bottle marked "poison" it is almost certain to disagree with you, sooner or later.

Investors must feel that they have fallen "down the rabbit-hole", like Alice, when the heads of some of the largest hedge funds in the US front up to the US Congressional Committee on Oversight and Government Reform and plead for "more regulation". What parallel universe has the credit crisis landed us in?

After telling his "mountain boy made good" life story to the Committee, Philip Falcone, the billionaire co-founder of Harbinger Capital Partners, testified that he supported "greater transparency and better reporting in the hedge fund sector". But, Falcone was not alone, Kenneth Griffin, founder of the Citadel Investment hedge fund, waxed lyrical: "Proper regulation is critical. But the best regulation is created with an eye toward unleashing opportunities, not limiting possibilities."

And I was under the mistaken impression that hedge funds were the bad guys, short selling perfectly good companies into oblivion and chucking fellow Richie Richs, such as Lehman's CEO Richard Fuld, out into the bitter cold of the Hamptons in winter. It turns out that hedge fund billionaires were really good guys after all, just - as Falcone put it - living the American Dream (unlike foreclosed mortgagees, who are living the American nightmare)

George Soros, another billionaire eager to give his opinion to the Oversight Committee and the world in general, (sort of) agreed about regulation telling the House that "financial engineering must also be regulated and new products must be registered and approved by the appropriate authorities before they can be used." And the man in charge of it all, Pushme-Pullyou Paulson, has come around (and around and around), now too believing that regulating hedge funds may be back on the Mad Hatters Tea table.

As Alice remarked: Curiouser and Curiouser?

It turns out that the solution was staring us in the face all along!

What is needed, the hedgies said, is a 'Central Derivatives Clearing House' where decent chaps can exchange contracts over coffee in the company of gentlemen. Where the regulatory Dormouse (Bernanke) can count and count toxic derivatives happily all day until the sacred cows come home. And, where the Tweedledum and Tweedledee of regulation, the Fed and the SEC, can get back to arguing really serious matters, like whose office is closer to the water-cooler?

Some time in the very near future when this new super-duper-super regulatory agency/clearing house/ talking shop moves into its new headquarters [the refurbished Kool-Aid building in Washington], staff and visitors may look up at the Latin inscription over the door - "Venenum in auro bibitur" or as Seneca said "Poison is drunk out of gold!"

Alternatively, people may glance across Pennsylvania Avenue at the Great Seal on the Treasury building, which has been re-chiseled to read "E Pluribus Bunkum".

Posted by pjmcconnell at November 19, 2008 11:45 PM

Comments

When the FMOC decides that inflation is too high, it "shorts" Treasuries into the market to reduce money supply, raise rates and slow the economy. When a hedge fund shorts a stock it takes a similar position and makes analogous statement. Wouldn't we all be better off today if the hedge funds had been shorting the investment banks a lot earlier and effectively taking away their capital through which they did so much damage by artificially raising prices and compounding leverage on the upside?

It is certainly possible that hedge funds engage in collusion on the downside, just as it may be possible for mutual funds to manipulate to the upside.

One might argue that the FMOC has explicit authority to short Treasuries while the hedge funds operate under a lack of explicit ban of shorting. The SEC does have a defense of shorting on its website. I see no ethical difference between the two operations. There are those who argue that the FED artificially lowered interest rates to stimulate the housing industry under pressure from Congress. If true, would this not have been an unethical shirking of its charter?

Posted by: Mark Bryfogle at November 24, 2008 01:36 PM

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