Today's complex, fast-changing and uncertain internal and external risks defy established methods of risk analysis and measurement. At the same time, AI is taking over risk aggregation, monitoring and reporting tasks. Risk managers whose primary skills are quantitative and technical are ill-equipped for these challenges. To meet them, both entry-level and mid-career risk managers need advanced analytical and communication skills such as the ones explained and practiced in this course, which serve not only to measure and interpret complex and uncertain risks, but also to validate, interpret and communicate AI models’ output to decision-makers.

Learning Objectives:

• Assess limitations of traditional risk approaches in complex, rapidly changing environments
• Identify how data gaps, bias, and assumptions impact risk accuracy
• Apply Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs) to evaluate risk and uncertainty
• Develop clear, defensible risk insights using the Intelligent Analysis model
• Translate analysis into concise, decision-ready executive communication (B.L.U.F.)
• Validate and interpret AI-driven risk outputs with confidence

Participants who have met all requirements of the course will receive a certificate and a complimentary copy of "Make Every Word Count: A Structured Approach to Build and Develop High Impact Analytic Products." Certificates and books may take up to two weeks to be delivered.

Course overview and objectives; limitations of traditional risk measurement; impact of complexity, uncertainty, and rapid change; introduction to AI’s role in risk aggregation, monitoring, and reporting

2

Case studies (e.g., SVB, FTX, Boeing); breakdowns in decision-making; role of advanced analytical thinking and clear communication in preventing failures

History and purpose of SATs; overview of the Intelligent Analysis model; example application including AI model validation

Defining Key Intelligence Questions; data collection and evaluation; identifying assumptions; developing initial analytic conclusions (B.L.U.F.)

Steve Lindo is Co-Principal of Intelligent Risk Management LLC, an executive education and advisory partnership which uses analytical methods pioneered by the US intelligence services to enhance risk analysis and decision-making by organizations across all industries. Since 2014 he has been a part-time lecturer and course designer in Columbia University’s MS in Enterprise Risk Management program. He and Dr. Jay Grusin, former CIA Officer and member of the Senior Intelligence Service, are co-authors of "Make Every Word Count: A Structured Approach to Build and Deliver High Impact Analytic Products" published in 2024 and “Intelligent Analysis: How to Defeat Uncertainty in High-Stakes Decisions” published in 2021.

Steve was Executive Director of PRMIA from 2008-2010 and is currently co-editor of PRMIA's quarterly Intelligent Risk journal. He is a regular presenter at conferences, webinar host and author of risk management articles and case studies.